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Javier has excellent overall numbers on the season, with a 3.26 ERA and 33.8% strikeout rate. It speaks to Javier’s ability - and perhaps the diminished Red Sox lineup - that Boston is implied for just 3.4 runs on Tuesday. He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal while tying for second in the FantasyLabs set.Ĭristian Javier ($8,700) Houston Astros (-230) vs. Kansas City is implied for a reasonable 3.8 runs, but that’s more than acceptable at Giolito’s salary. He has a matchup with the Royals, a bottom-10 offense in the majors. If there’s ever a time for some positive regression to come for Giolito, it might just be Tuesday. In fact, his hard-hit rate of 29.3% is the lowest mark of his career. That latter number isn’t a massive jump over his career mark of 14.6%, but it stands out relative to the league average of 11.4% in 2022.Īll of the above could be explained by Giolito allowing harder contact this season, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. His HR/FB ratio is also elevated at 16.1%. 349, more than 70 points higher than his career mark. However, Giolito is a major regression candidate. His strikeout rate is also the lowest since 2018, though still a respectable 25.8%. His ERA is over five coming into Tuesday, after three consecutive seasons in the mid-threes at worst. Glancing at Giolito’s salary tells you everything you need to know about his year. MLB DFS Value Picks Lucas Giolito ($6,800) Chicago White Sox (-178) vs. I’m willing to take the heavy ownership when a pitcher stands this far ahead of the field.īurnes leads the FantasyLabs projections in median and ceiling, largely driven by his strikeout upside. However, he’s pretty obviously the best play on paper on Tuesday. On a 14-game slate, there’s a chance another pitcher edges out Burnes in the final score. Our K Prediction on Burnes is 7.98, also easily the top mark on the slate. The Pirates strike out at the second highest rate of any team themselves, giving him a massive ceiling today. The Brewers -270 moneyline odds also make them the second-largest favorites on the slate, giving Burnes the best Vegas data of any pitcher on Tuesday.īurnes ranks third in the majors among qualified starters with his 32.8% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh is implied for just 2.9 runs, easily the lowest mark on the slate. The sky is the limit for Burnes today, as he takes on the bottom-tier offense of the Pirates. Become a PRO Member MLB DFS Pitching Picks MLB DFS Stud Picks Corbin Burnes ($10,100) Milwaukee Brewers (-270) at Pittsburgh Pirates